I love politics, but have studiously avoided writing or talking about it this election season. Why? I’m fairly cynical when it comes to politicians and their promises, which I view as ephemeral. Why enjoin in debate over something that’s just going to be forgotten in a few month’s time?
Yet, on this morning, the day after America has elected a new president, I cannot but feel that a new chapter has begun in the story of this country. It’s not just that America has elected an African-American as president for the first time in her history, thus demonstrating that race is no longer the scourge and divider it once was, but that the paranoia, the fear-mongering, the “us vs. them” attitude that has characterized the present administration’s rule is perhaps finally over.
Emotions are riding high right now, particularly for Obama’s supporters, but they’ll inevitably be disappointed. One reason for Obama’s success was that he was a relatively clean slate, allowing people from all walks to project their hopes onto him. Yet, the fundamentals of our republic, with its checks and balances and diffusion of power, have not changed. The hoped for revolution will be more akin to evolution, and we all know how drawn-out and messy that process is.
Will this chapter end with, “…and they lived happily ever after”? Certainly not. The chickens of the past have come home to roost, and more are on their way. Much of the cause of the current crises comes directly from the paradigm that Obama (and the rest of the Government Party) proudly upholds. Most immediately, I worry that Obama’s populist rhetoric on trade will translate into tariffs and quotas, in a vain attempt to preserve American jobs, à la the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930. At another time of grave economic uncertainly, America elected a president who calmed her with soothing words and a steady hand, just as now, but whose policies only resulted in deepening the malaise.
Further out, Obama, like many Democratic politicians, seems to be in a state of denial with regards to the tremendous problem financing Social Security, Medicare, and the new drug entitlement. With the gush or red ink spilled to keep Wall Street solvent, and with more on the way to bail out everyone and their brother, Obama had better “hope” money starts growing on trees.
The last Democratic president relied on the peace dividend to bring government deficits under control. While Obama talks of reducing forces in Iraq, he’s promised to broaden the war in Afghanistan, perhaps into Pakistan. The one bright spot in all this: fuel prices have fallen dramatically, even as the northern hemisphere enters winter.
In sum, either Obama will fulfill his campaign promises and further drown us all in debt, or dash his supporters’ dreams by owning up to the looming challenges he’s so far largely ignored. My guess is that he’ll make good on some things (can’t anger the base after all!), while implementing stop-gap policies that merely prolong the pain.
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“In sum, either Obama will fulfill his campaign promises and further drown us all in debt, or dash his supporters’ dreams by owning up to the looming challenges he’s so far largely ignored. ”
False dichotomy. There are lots of alternate outcomes, depending upon just how much he is able to enlist bipartisan aid in crafting solutions. He has repeatedly noted the difficulty of “digging ourselves out of the hole we are in”, and that it will take a broad spectrum of support to do it successfully.
Granted, both he and McCain ignored the deficit (except to beat the other over the head with it) and that will certainly affect how well we can solve our myriad problems. But that is hardly a reason to blame him for failure before he even takes office!